AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are always good under John Harbaugh, and they would have made the playoffs in 2021 if Lamar Jackson had stayed healthy. Like the Bills, they are a machine that always has depth waiting to replace departures; and when they don’t, they grab veterans that don’t contribute to the comp pick formula to fill in the gaps. They’re very good at this, but they’re starting at a lower talent level baseline than Buffalo, and sometimes the positional value is a bit off. This offseason, they lost Bradley Bozeman, so they traded Hollywood Brown for Tyler Linderbaum. That’s all pretty good; I wouldn’t want to extend Brown either, but Linderbaum is a bit odd as a gap scheme fit, and in general, I don’t need a first-round center. Additionally, it’s odd to me that they didn’t replace Brown with a low-cost veteran. I’m not sure why Will Fuller is still available, but his departure has Baltimore’s WR group looking pretty weak. They’ve volume-drafted receivers, so the hope must be that one or more of Devin Duvernay, James Proche, or Tylan Wallace emerges opposite Rashod Bateman (who I like, but he’s also not necessarily a sure thing. In terms of other cheap vets, they grabbed Morgan Moses who should be an upgrade on Ali Villanueva. Michael Pierce was brought back to play the nose. They signed Kyle Fuller to replace Jimmy Smith and Anthony Averett, which strikes me as an odd fit if the plan is to play him in the slot, but I’m assuming Marlon Humphrey will shadow and Fuller will play outside (assuming he makes today’s cuts). The team drafted Kyle Hamilton, which felt like a classic Ravens pick; however, he has predictably struggled and appears likely to start the season as the third safety. On the other hand, they made a rare big move on a true UFA and added Marcus Williams, who should be a huge upgrade over the departed DeShon Elliott.

All that to say, they upgraded a couple spots, downgraded some others, but the talent level seems to be about the same as a team that led the AFC before losing their final 6 games. That did coincide with Lamar Jackson getting hurt, but it does warrant mentioning that Jackson was not particularly good, especially compared to his MVP 2019 or even his pretty good 2020. He dropped back 470 times in 2021, a career high despite appearing in only 11 games. He was also hurried, hit while throwing, and sacked at a much higher percentage than ever before. Pressures were converted into sacks at a higher percentage as well, and he scrambled a little less. Designed runs for Jackson were roughly the same but designed runs for running backs were down (understandable, given the total lack of talent after Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins tore their ACLs right before the regular season). Jackson’s ability to survive in the pocket should improve with an upgraded offensive line, particularly if Ronnie Stanley is ready for week 1 after missing most of 2021. Still, it seems relatively clear that the slight shift towards more drop backs, and just as much running, wasn’t ideal for Lamar Jackson. Given that his strong games came earlier in the season, it could be that his workload caught up with him.

It seems as though OC Greg Roman is committed to adjusting to try to recapture the 2022 magic. Very few resources have been allocated to WR because this team may use fewer 2 or 3 WR sets than any team in the league. Dobbins may or may not be ready for week 1, but Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake were brought in to add some power and explosion to the RB group. They already had arguably the best receiving TE in the league; now they’ve added two fourth round tight ends, including Isaiah Likely, who has made some noise in the preseason. The idea is to threaten the run with Jackson and the running backs, get Jackson back to attacking the intermediate middle, and open up some deep shots. Lower volume, higher efficiency. It’s not typical, but it is probably the best use of Jackson’s talents.

The Ravens defense was also a problem in 2021. Odafe Oweh flashed as rookie and Marlon Humphrey was basically Marlon Humphrey, but the talent isn’t particularly young. A third-year leap from disappointing 2020 first rounder Patrick Queen would be most welcome. Marcus Peters returning is nice, but he is 29. Their edge group is thin due to injury and heavily reliant on 33-year-old Justin Houston, and their interior pass rush is reliant on 36-year-old Calais Campbell. Pierce will help as a run stuffer, Marcus Williams will improve the back end, and a new DC, Mike Macdonald, with fewer blitzes and a better man-zone mix, will all help. It would be borderline impossible for the defense to be as bad as they were last year, but it has the look of a middle of the road, high-variance group.

John Harbaugh is probably a Hall of Fame head coach. He is involved in all three phases, his teams are disciplined, and he adds a ton of EV with his decision making. Greg Roman knows one style of football; luckily, if he had to create a QB in a lab, it would probably be Lamar Jackson. We’ll see with Macdonald; he’s not the two high guy I probably would have sought out, but he seems competent. The schedule is pretty favorable, so I see no reason they won’t be firmly in the playoff mix.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals won the AFC last season. I’m still not entirely clear on whether they were good, but they were in the Super Bowl and they had a chance to win, so the answer is “probably!” When I was looking at their roster last year and throwing it all into a big ole spreadsheet, I was surprised that it kept insisting the Bengals had a good defense and that, if their offensive line were decent, they’d be a playoff team. That’s not really what happened, but the Bengals were pretty good anyway, so I should have listened to the spreadsheet.

The offseason plan was all about bringing the offensive line from bad to average, and they may have accomplished that. Jonah Williams was the only competent pass blocker for the Bengals last season, and he is the only projected starter that remains. Alex Cappa is the new right guard, and he’s solidly above average as a run and pass blocker. The same is true of Ted Karras, the new center, who could play guard if needed. That could be needed, depending on the level of trust in the backup interior linemen, because fourth round rookie Cordell Volson is the projected LG, and I’ll be honest – I do not remember who that is, and I had plenty of reason to know the relevant offensive linemen heading into the draft. Brandon Thorn says he should have been a sixth rounder. Late round iOL pop all the time, especially converted tackles, but he doesn’t seem like a particularly strong bet. Last, they signed La’el Collins, who the Cowboys cut for no reason. He’ll get clowned occasionally, and he’s more run block than pass block, but the overall profile is that of a really, really good RT. It’s unclear whether he’ll be ready for week 1, but this OL at full health only has one obvious weak link, and that’s 3 fewer than last year’s. They can probably afford a little attrition and still come out well ahead.

The offense was good, though not elite, especially schedule adjusted, until Joe Burrow lost his mind around week 12. From that point through week 17, he made 18 big time throws versus 3 turnover worthy plays. His postseason brilliance was maybe a bit overstated; they were a +6 in 4 games and he graded good, not great. His season passing grade led PFF, and he was actually a little unlucky in that, he threw 15 interceptions on 16 turnover worth plays. He could play exactly the same as last season, and his efficiency could easily improve based on a few more dropped interceptions. Despite league average distance on his deep ball; he was absolutely elite throwing anything over 10 yards. If anything was an issue, it was within 10 yards if the LOS (see the Bears game). While I don’t want to put too much stock into one great season, and particularly one incredible stretch of games, Burrow was one of the best QB prospects of the past couple decades, so the only surprising aspect of this is that he did it behind a horrible offensive line. And it’s possible the line isn’t horrible anymore.

The Bengals run a lot more than they should, and Burrow, for as elite as he is throwing deep, sticks to the short part of the field until he finds a mismatch. It would be nice to see them open things up even more given their WR group arguably being the best in the league, but that’s been Burrow’s game since his senior season, and the results are hard to argue with. And there are worse RBs to needlessly overuse than Joe Mixon. Even if the highs are a little less frequent, this is going to be a consistently good offense.

Last year the defense was 19^th in DVOA. They were particularly impressive in the playoffs, and pretty consistent aside from a few stinkers in the regular season. But largely, a lot of their success game from beating up on poor offenses. Their only real loss was Larry Ogunjobi inside. Teams targeted Eli Apple at corner, and I don’t think any team should feel great about him, but his issues were less so sticking to the receiver and more so penalties. History suggests that’s not likely to change, so Cam Taylor-Britt, one of my personal favorites, could be a factor when healthy. Everything else is basically the same; Trey Hendrickson repeated his 2021 performance despite literally everyone saying he would not. The rest of the D-line is made up of run stuffers, but Joseph Ossai could add a little pass rushing juice after a redshirt rookie season. The LBs can cover, the secondary now goes 3 safeties deep with first rounder Daxton Hill and a likely bounce back from Jesse Bates, and Chido Awuzie and Mike Hilton are extremely solid as an outside and nickel, respectively. I would have liked to see a greater effort to take advantage of their window and add a high-end corner, but otherwise, there are few spots for concern.

It’s hard to be sold on Zac Taylor after showing nothing prior to 2021; he inherited a lot of Sean McVay’s weenie in-game tendencies, but also had the Bengals committing the second fewest penalties in football (and Eli Apple accounted for 1/7 of that; not really a discipline issue). He’s not a bad coach; just probably not a needle mover. I came away extremely impressed with Lou Anarumo and was surprised he garnered very little interest for a head coaching job; Cincinnati is in good hands with him.

I think this is probably the most talented team in the division, given that their QB isn’t suspended, and nothing underlying suggests 2021 was a fluke. The schedule will be much tougher, however, so my guess is that Baltimore, at least, will give them a serious run.

Cleveland Browns

I’d have strongly advocated for the Browns, even before the 2021 season, to trade Baker Mayfield and try to land an elite QB. If that had required an enormous bounty of picks, and a fully guaranteed contract for a young, top-ten, QB, I’d have said absolutely. I’d have said that to nearly any team, but after 2021 wasted an extremely strong roster with an injured Baker Mayfield, whose ceiling is more like a top ~15 passer when healthy, I’d have said the Browns, more than any other team, should be making that move. And hey, they did! I truly have zero issue with the idea behind what they did.

Problem is, on the field, this also has a good chance of being a wasted season with an ineffective QB, because the QB they got will be unavailable for 11 games. If the reason for the 11 games was for something stupid, like a suspension for gambling or smoking weed, I’d have said, eh, maybe don’t fully guarantee the deal; this is probably for 2023 so let’s not go crazy here. But he’s not hurt so, let’s still get this guy. QBs of this caliber don’t grow on trees.

This is a long preamble, and everyone already knows the blow, so I’ll just say that I am sad that of all teams, it’s the formerly loveable loser Browns, who seemed to be on the brink of turning it all around, that did this. I am delighted, however, that a truly evil owner, even by evil owner standards, is now saddled with an absolute sociopath of a QB on a fully guaranteed contract, because no one bothered to speak with a single victim. I never have to take anything but joy in the Browns failure, so, there’s a silver lining. It is unfortunate that the suspension is for 11 games and not for life, but it’s a little comforting to know that the Browns will have no margin for error if they want to salvage 2023. And hey, maybe Watson will tear both his ACLs while crossing the street and get hit by a truck trying to get up. One can hope.

So, the first question is, can Jacoby Brissett keep things afloat for 11 games? The goal has to be at least 6-5 or so. Unfortunately, he’s got a shot. The schedule is extremely soft, especially early, and while Brissett isn’t a good QB, he’s also not much worse than 2021 Baker Mayfield, who managed an 8-9 record against a much tougher schedule. Brissett was generally fine behind the Dolphins offensive line, and now his supporting cast includes 2 legit difference maker RBs, a borderline elite offensive line and an average WR group that still probably upgraded with the swap of Amari Cooper for Jarvis Landry.  Brissett did look like garbage against the Bears backups in the preseason, but that’s preseason. The Brissett-led offense won’t be good, but it probably won’t be the bottom 5 unit that would preclude them from winning some games.

When Watson is back? On paper, this looks pretty great. Of course, it will have been nearly 2 full seasons since Watson played an NFL regular season game, and in his only preseason game, he went 1 for 5 for 7 yards (granted, 2 dropped passes). Maybe Watson sucks now! That would be incredible. Unfortunately, while he’s probably not going to immediately be a top 3 QB like he was in 2020, he’s probably still pretty good. If Brissett keeps things afloat, Watson has a good chance of finishing things off.

Their defense looks pretty strong. The EDGE group is the same as last year and features the second-best defensive player in the league, Myles Garrett, plus a savvy addition of Chase Winovich to add some depth. Greg Newsome was awesome a rookie and forms one of the better 1-2 punches in the league with Denzel Ward, though it seems he’ll play significantly more often in the slot with Troy Hill shipped back to LA. That opens up time for Greedy Williams, who had some hype as a prospect, but has been unreliable as a pro. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was one of the best linebackers in football as a rookie, and his prospect pedigree would suggest that will continue. The weakness is the interior; Anthony Walker is a perfectly serviceable LB, but aside from hoping for a couple of breakouts from Perrion Winfrey and Tommy Togai, two solid prospects in their first and second years respectively, it seems unlikely the group can be league average. Overall though, strong personnel on defense.

Kevin Stefanski seems like a pretty average head coach. The run first identity he brings offensively is a little tired, but it helps to have a top 3 runner in the NFL, and a top ~15ish runner backing him up and taking most the passing downs. He is typically aggressive on fourth down (though, never forget him wussing out against Kansas City in the playoffs). His teams commit a lot of penalties. Joe Woods is hasn’t had great defenses, but it seems like he has the right idea, i.e., lots of 2 high.

This is a talented team with an easy schedule and a good QB will start 6 of their games. I’d love to count them out but if they’re 4-0 or 3-1 after 4 games, I won’t be shocked.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The lede is that Ben Roethlisberger retired, and that the Steelers replaced him with one bad veteran QB and another pretty unimpressive first round QB prospect. That sounds bad, until you remember that Roethlisberger was also a bad veteran QB for the past 2 years; missed almost all of 2019, and Mike Tomlin STILL couldn’t be bothered to finish under .500.

My first thought, looking at the roster, is that it is far less talented than I expected. The offensive line was bad in 2021, but they made a couple pickups in James Daniels and Mason Cole. Generally, the goal is just to bring things back to average, but it’s hard to see that happening here. Cole’s mildly successful 2021 still came with a terrible pass block grade and followed three awful seasons. Daniels has consistently finished as a slightly above average guard, but Trai Turner was also an above average guard. It’s not clear that any upgrade happened. Both tackles were awful; Dan Moore especially struggled as a rookie, and while I trust the Steelers’ talent evaluators, there was nothing unexpected there from my standpoint. The right tackle Chuky Okorafor was a project coming out of Western Michigan, but in his fourth season, was below average in both pass and run blocking. Even if those guys improve a bit, I don’t see any reason to believe the needle would be moved. The team’s best offensive lineman is Kevin Dotson; his pass block grade was excellent; and there’s reason to believe he can improve as a run blocker. I focus on this because this seems to be the greatest concern of those that observed training camp and the preseason. The line looks extremely shaky, and if there’s one compliment I can pay late career Roethlisberger, it’s that he could get absolutely crushed and he’d still come back the next play and throw a 4 yard out with 6 seconds of hang time.

The Steelers receivers have never not been good. Dionte Johnson’s game meshed pretty well with Roethlisberger, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can do more downfield without him. Chase Claypool has bizarrely fallen out of favor after a great rookie season, but he’s very talented. George Pickens probably doesn’t deserve to be the betting favorite for ROY, but parlay that with Mike Tomlin to win COY and you have a decent looking longshot bet. I ranked him as the fourth best WR in this draft; he was the 11^th taken, and predictably, he’s gotten massive hype going into the season. If he is an immediate 1000-yard receiver, I will not be surprised. TE Pat Freiermuth really impressed me last season; I think he has a chance to be a rare needle-mover at that position. Finally, Najee Harris was a completely insane use of a first-round pick, but despite an inefficient rookie season, I like him going forward (for what little that’s worth).

As for the QBs, the question is, can either surpass Roethlisberger. Mitch Trubisky is maybe getting another shot as a starter. He was not a good player the last time we saw him in the regular season, but he may have gotten some Ken Dorsey pixie dust from his year spent in Buffalo; he’s played well in two straight preseasons. The last time we saw him in 2020, he was benched for Nick Foles, then returned to an extremely PA heavy offense and played caretaker well enough to allow the Bears to squeak into the postseason. While he played well in said postseason game against a pretty good Saints defense, nothing he did in the time preceding that should have inspired any confidence. He  checked down a ton, generally avoided interceptions (there was plenty of luck involved there) and let the run game do most of the work. His “breakout” season was 2018, and while there were a couple performances you could dream on, there were as many performances that should have gotten him benched. It wasn’t a *bad* season when you consider his rushing, but some time in 2019 the rushing stopped. There just isn’t any indication that he is a talented passer. He is a slow processor and makes too many throws that don’t have a chance. He has had most of his statistical success throwing short (in 2018, 12 TD vs 1 INT) but with 6 turnover worthy plays. He has never been good fitting throws into the intermediate window (5 TD, 5 INT, 2 BTT, 9 TWP). He Is relatively successful throwing deep (8 TD, 6 INT, 22(!!!!) BTT, 5 TWP). Naturally, Matt Nagy started asking him to perform more full field reads, with far fewer deep balls, after 2018. Granted, it’s pretty clear that Trubisky isn’t particularly good at anything – you can’t be horrible throwing passes 10-19 yards –  but let us never forget how dumb Matt Nagy is.

Trubisky was a decent QB prospect that was over-drafted and has given no indication that he’s more than a backup. He’s worth a look, but his career says that he’s not an upgrade on geriatric Roethlisberger. With the right play-calling mix, he can potentially be more effective if he’s protected, can throw deep, and can be hidden by an effective run game. I don’t have much faith that this is the situation for him. More importantly though, the team drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round. I had him as more of a second-third round type, but it can be tough to evaluate QBs whose tools aren’t super loud. The Steelers aren’t bad talent evaluators. Pickett’s small hands were a big deal before the draft; it’s debatable how much it matters, but it does matter. There are no good QBs with hands his size. He also had his only great college as a 23-year-old senior, but it was pretty great. Average depth of target was….average, but suddenly incredible success throwing deep and intermediate. Like many rookies, he may not be ready to process a full field immediately, but I’m not going to be shocked if he can give shades of Mac Jones and threaten every level with some success. Apparently, he had a poor training camp, but shined in the preseason, and as of this moment, Tomlin still won’t name a starter. I’d give Pickett a whirl.

The Steeles had an elite defense two years ago, but they regressed hard to league average in 2021. There are three holdovers from 2021 that we can agree are Pro Bowl caliber, or better: T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and, despite a down 2020, Minkah Fitzpatrick. Devin Bush and Alex Highsmith are fine with some potential, but Bush in particular was expected to be much better. Tyson Alualu regressed hard in 2021 and at his age, it’s hard to imagine a bounce back. The rest of the starting defense is made up of free agent signings, none of which seem likely to make a major difference. Larry Ogunjobi, if healthy, could be a nice steal. Akhiello Witherspoon was good in 2021, but there’s probably some regression in store. Levi Wallace is average at best, and Myles Jack is years removed from being borderline Pro Bowl caliber. At full health, the defense should be fine, and may improve under Teryl Austin, but it’s not going to come close to 2021.

I’m struggling because picking against Mike Tomlin is not smart. He cobbled a good team quarterbacked by ***Duck Hodges****. But man, the talent level just isn’t close to the rest of this division. I’m going to pick against him and hate every minute of it.