AFC South

(This division blows so hopefully we can make this quick)

Houston Texans

The Texans were predictably awful in 2021 but given the fact that they were awful in 2020 with elite QB play, 4 wins was a mildly shocking result. There was no shortage of blowout losses, but there were a couple of impressive upset wins vs Tennessee and the Chargers, and a couple impressively close losses against New England and, again, Tennessee. One might suggest that David Culley overachieved as a rookie head coach, but he was fired, and after a completely insane interviewing process, the team promoted defensive coordinator Lovie Smith as their next placeholder head coach. Putting aside Smith’s track record, whatever success Houston had probably had more to do with Lovie than Culley; the team still committed a lot of penalties and Culley was extremely conservative while the defense finished 23^rd with talent that would suggest 32^nd.

Speaking of 2021 overachievers that still weren’t very good, Davis Mills had more positive moments than any third-round pick would be expected to. Mills was a 5-star recruit with inconsistent tape with lots of big-time throws thrown in, and that’s basically what he was as a rookie. After a truly awful start in relief of Tyrod Taylor (save for a great showing in the aforementioned loss to the Patriots), Mills was benched, but was reinserted as QB in week 14. There were still some clunkers, but his performance in the Chargers win and, particularly, the Titans loss, featured a ton of big time throws and no turnover-worthy plays. For the season, his deep ball was one of the best in the league; he threw 6 TD and 1 INT over 20 yards, with 13 BTT, 2 TWP and an overall 89.4 grade. He was also fine intermediately. The overall profile isn’t jaw dropping, but Mills is clearly worth a full season for a team unlikely to compete. Not to keep harping on it, but I’d bet on Mills before Zach Wilson.

The offensive line should be better in 2022. Laremy Tunsil is healthy after missing 12 games in 2021 and should resume being one of the better LT in the NFL. Tytus Howard has always graded as a solid pass blocker and is probably best cast at RT rather than guard. Kenyon Green was a reach but a solid prospect that should be competent right away (granted the small sample size in the preseason was pretty brutal). Justin Britt and A.J. Cann are nothing special, but there’s a floor. The receiver group is pretty weak. Brandin Cooks has become underrated and is a perfectly fine 1. Nico Collins was a nice prospect and there is absolutely breakout potential there, but I think the realistic ceiling is as a passable 2. The rest is pretty rough. Some veterans with almost no upside, and some young players with….almost no upside. I’d love to be excited about my guy O.J. Howard, but unfortunately, the man is cooked.

The defense has some hidden gems. Jonathan Greenard was *extremely* good in a small sample. He’ll probably regress in a larger one, but he was a nice prospect that has clearly worked out. Maliek Collins is a perfectly above average 3 tech. Tavierre Thomas is an excellent nickel corner that is hurt, but Desmond King is no slouch in his stead. Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo are all solid pass rushers that will round out the depth. Steven Nelson is a consistent #2-type corner. Derrick Stingley was the third overall pick, who I loved, but I do wonder if he’s miscast in a Tampa 2 defense. There were a few sloppy reps in the preseason, but overall, he held his own. Jalen Pitre is a bit of a projection to free safety after playing mostly as a nickel corner at Baylor. There’s a wide range of outcomes there as a rookie. I’m not crazy about the rest of the defense and there are concerns up the middle with the 1 tech, other safety spot, and LB group being a bit concerning, but this group was not horrible in 2023 and I wouldn’t expect much regression with some added talent and potentially a bigger role for Greenard.

This is its own post (that I’ve probably already made), but Lovie Smith has been an extremely successful head coach. Could he pick some better offensive coordinators? Yes, probably, and while Pep Hamilton definitely deserves a shot, he’s not a very exciting choice. But Lovie always coaches overperforming defenses. His teams usually win (and sometimes he gets fired anyway!). It doesn’t matter how he fared at a third tier Power Five school (decently, and he should still be employed there). His team will play hard. They aren’t very talented, and their schedule is shockingly difficult, but they won’t be an embarrassment.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are always pretty good because Chris Ballard doesn’t make huge personnel mistakes (at least none that he can’t slip out of one offseason later), even if he’s entirely too cautious for my liking. Frank Reich has gotten great results out of his offense, given the personnel, but he’ll have to navigate his first season without Matt Eberflus. Man, it sure sucks Andrew Luck retired.

The QB is now Matt Ryan. Since Luck, this has basically been the archetype – veteran QB available because his previous team is starting over at the position. The Colts are never bad enough to start over, and these opportunities keep presenting themselves, so, it makes sense. Is Ryan an upgrade over Rivers/Wentz? Probably, though Wentz had better surface numbers, and the peripheral numbers were basically the same. He was a little better than Wentz in the intermediate range, and he was working with a lesser WR group behind a worse O-line, and therefore threw the ball much quicker. The overall grade was better, and the peaks and valleys weren’t as frequent (though they were still there). I guess most importantly, even if Ryan is never going to be 2016 Ryan again, he would have beaten Jacksonville in week 18. That’s something.

Reich is aware that ground and pound teams don’t win Super Bowls, which is a refreshingly accurate thing for a coach to say, but even if Ryan can be, say, the 2018 version of himself, the personnel isn’t exactly conducive to a total shift in philosophy. First of all, Jonathan Taylor is extremely good, so while the way he gets his touches could be altered, he should still get his touches. There’s only one good/experienced receiver, but it’s possible that he’s *extremely* good. Michael Pittman Jr. was a top ≈20 receiver in 2021; there are indicators that that can become top 10 in 2022. The rest of the WR group is going to require some projection. Alec Pierce is a second-round rookie with some elite testing numbers and a reputation as a contested catch deep threat; he was reasonably productive for a great G5 team and particularly good against man coverage. He is a bit one dimensional as a receiver, and disappeared in the playoffs against Alabama (granted, he was excellent against Notre Dame in the regular season). That he has stuck as Indianapolis’ second receiver since training camp without any real competition is encouraging; it’s likely that he will make an impact as a rookie, but as a lower-volume second and third level type. Parris Campbell is the slot; through three years, there’s never been any indication that can stay healthy or produce when he does see the field. It feels a bit strange the Colts didn’t at least kick the tires on Cole Beasley, or bring back T.Y. Hilton, but Ballard is nothing if not committed to his draft picks. Elsewhere, TE is a bit of a dead spot, and Nyheim Hynes is an elite pass catching back that would probably be utilized more often on a team that doesn’t have Jonathan Taylor. In all, it feels like they’re a weapon or two short to truly open up the offense.

The offensive line has built a strong reputation but there are some potential concern areas. Quenton Nelson had a down 2021, but he’s Quenton Nelson. He’ll be fine. Braden Smith is a top 5 right tackle. Ryan Kelly has been mostly good as a pro but struggled in 2021 and his track record doesn’t get him the same benefit of the doubt as Nelson. He should be fine, but it’s worth monitoring. Matt Pryor came out of nowhere and had a strong season, mostly at right tackle, but the sample wasn’t very large. It’s hard to buy that he’s a long-term answer. Danny Pinter is a third year fifth rounder with some pretty good run block grades and some really bad pass blocking grades. The Colts do a great job developing, but it’s hard to see this not being a large downgrade on Mark Glowinski.

Defensively, the big move was bringing in Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore spent some time as a top ≈3 CB in the NFL in the recent past but has fallen off a bit while struggling with injury the past couple years. That makes sense for a 32-year-old, but his run with Carolina was mostly encouraging. There’s still something left in the tank here, and he’s an upgrade on Xavier Rhodes. The Colts also moved on from Rock Ya-Sin, whose reputation doesn’t seem to match his perfectly solid PFF coverage grades (albeit, against pretty weak competition). That’s the inverse of the man he traded for, Yannick Ngakoue, who managed 10 sacks and 40 hurries, but fell off hard in the second half of 2021 and was one of the worst run defenders in the league. The ability is there, but it’s hard for me to prefer Ngakoue over Ya-Sin. There was also the unfortunate retirement of Khari Willis, whose vacated spot is filled by third round rookie Nick Cross. Cross has elite measurables, but the tape didn’t show a safety with NFL-ready instincts. Kenny Moore II is an excellent nickel who will get a shot on the outside, but his replacement when he moves inside is a major question. Isaiah Rodgers seems like the best bet on the roster, but it appears Brandon Facyson will get the first crack.

The defense has some elite personnel starting with Darius Leonard, though it sounds like he could move to the middle in a new defensive scheme. He’ll handle it fine, but it does seem a bit risky to mess with the type of success he’s had. DeForest Buckner is a fantastic interior pass rusher, while Grover Stewart is an ideal nose. Kwity Paye showed fairly well as a rookie, but the Colts are likely counting on more than the 5 sacks and 6 hits he had as a rookie.

Frank Reich seems like an above average head coach. The Colts play fast and disciplined, and if anything, his fourth down decision making has been overly aggressive, which is much better than the alternative (thinking about that overtime failure in 2018, which I’d have tried  10 times out of 10). The concern is Gus Bradley. He’s a cover 3 guy who had his best success with the LOB Seahawks and has produced pretty middling defenses since then. He’s got a revamped secondary that may or may not be better than what the Colts had in 2021, so that may help the transition, but there’s really no comparison to Matt Eberflus. I’d expect some fairly noticeable regression from this group. The good news is, that may not show up on the scoreboard, as the Colts have one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. There’s no doubt that, on paper, this team is the favorite in the South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags went crazy in free agency and while it was maybe not the greatest long-term plan (I’m just going to ignore the opportunity cost here and focus on the roster, because I don’t want to do 2000 words on them), the roster was upgraded. The biggest upgrade though, is from Urban Meyer, the worst NFL coach in recent memory, to Doug Pederson, who won a Super Bowl 4 years ago.

Truly, I don’t know how much it’s worth digging into what happened in 2021. Nothing that happened is applicable. They still have Trevor Lawrence. I think there are two possibilities for one evaluating the Jaguars. You either think Trevor Lawrence was a fraud as a universally beloved prospect, or you think he’ll be the best QB in the AFC South this season. That’s not a real question for me. Lawrence was an incredible prospect, and while I don’t think he can go full Joe Burrow while unlearning whatever Meyer taught him, he can take a huge leap. I don’t love Pederson’s offense in general; he goes empty a lot and asks a lot of his QB, but I think Lawrence can be a fit for what he wants to do. Lawrence isn’t the type of QB that needs a ton of play action. Just let him survey the field and rip it.

The weapons are upgraded. Evan Engram is a professional tight end. Christian Kirk is a decent slot/outside deep threat. I don’t love him, but he’s fine. Zay Jones actually impressed me last season. Travis Etienne has a chance to be a difference maker in the backfield. James Robinson is a solid running back. Marvin Jones Jr. is boring, but he’s fine. This is still a pretty bad skill group, but it’s not Laquon Treadwell and Laviska Shenault. The offensive line is maybe a better, swapping out Andrew Norwell for Brandon Scherff, but there are still some problems. Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor are average book ends; Robinson has been a decent pass protector for two seasons and Taylor was fine there last year; neither is a very good run blocker. Inside, the loss of Brandon Linder could be a problem, he’ll be replaced by some combination of veteran Tyler Shatley and rookie Luke Fortner. Ben Bartch is a weak link at guard. Overall, a bad supporting cast, but it’s bound to be significantly better than it was in 2022. This was the 27th ranked offense by DVOA in 2021; I’d imagine Lawrence can at least get them to ≈20.

On defense, we have some more undeniable upgrades with some questionable opportunity cost. Travon Walker was a weird first pick; nevertheless, he flashed in the preseason and will take snaps away from K’Lavon Chiasson, which is probably a good thing. Folo Fatukasi was really good in 2020 and average in 2021, but I like him as a big run stuffing body.  Darious Williams was also better in 2020 than in 2021, but at minimum, he appears to be a reliable nickel corner. Foye Oluokun graded poorly by PFF but does seem like the type that PFF penalizes for doing too much. He’s starting caliber, and rookie Devin Lloyd also seems like a ready-made LB that can be average at worst.

The returning talent is more impressive. Josh Allen is an absolute stud pass rusher. Tyson Campbell was miscast in the slot far too often, but he seems like a good bet to take a second-year leap. Shaq Griffin was a credible #1 corner. Andre Cisco showed some promise as a rookie in limited playing time. Like the offense, this isn’t a great defense, but the stuff that was good isn’t likely to regress much, and the stuff that was bad should improve.

As I said, the most important thing about Doug Pederson is that he isn’t Urban Meyer. He won a Super Bowl and did some cool stuff in the process (the good analytic decisions he’s made literally have statues devoted to them in Philadelphia). I think he’s roughly average, and that’s fine. Defensively, I’m not sure Mike Caldwell is a massive difference from Joe Cullen in terms of philosophy, assuming Caldwell learned from Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay, but that’s an impressive mentor. The schedule is not as easy as the Colts, but easy enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if they gave the Colts some competition.

Tennessee Titans

I’m diving into these things and writing as I learn, so maybe I’ll change my mind but I’m pretty comfortable saying that the 2021 Titans were the worst #1 seed I’ve ever seen, and then they traded A.J. Brown for no reason. They did give Harold Landry big money instead, and he tore his ACL. Let’s explore if the Titans can crack .500 this season!

Ryan Tannehill is still the QB. Everyone is sick of Ryan Tannehill, but it is a fact that PFF grades him well, both as a passer and a runner, even as his TWP have outpaced his BTT the past two season. Seems weird, but the Titans keep winning games. No one would argue that he is a *bad* quarterback since supplanting Marcus Mariota. He releases the ball quickly and largely avoids dangerous throws. Unsurprisingly, the Titans are PA heavy, and Tannehill thrives off PA. They are one of the few teams that truly seem to set up the PA game with the run game.

As we’ve seen, Tannehill probably cannot be the singular reason an offense is good, and he almost certainly cannot be the reason a team wins a playoff game. It feels kind of like the Alex Smith Chiefs. He doesn’t seem to have it in him to string together a bunch of big time throws against a good defense. The Titans are in pretty good hands with Tannehill, but they need their Mahomes. And hey, there’s a 2% chance that could be Malik Willis. That’s not nothing!

So, while this offends many of my sensibilities, the most valuable player on offense might actually be Derrick Henry. The team still won some games and got some good rushing performances out of D’Onta Foreman, but after Henry got hurt in week 8, Tannehill had his 4 worst passing performances. His best performance during that span was worse than 3 of his performances prior. Correlation is not causation, but that did happen; don’t shoot the messenger. Henry has clearly been the best RB in football for 3 years; I would argue he was secretly the best RB in football before that but didn’t get the touches. He is incredible. He also suffered a Jones fracture last season, and when he returned in the wild card round against Cincinnati, he was ineffective. It would be wrong to say that a Jones fracture is a death sentence to any player; however, the healing process is tricky, and Henry having rushed back from it isn’t ideal. There has been nothing to suggest that Henry is not fully healed; at the same time, a 28-year-old RB whose presence seems to be the driving force behind the entire offense, having experienced his first significant injury, isn’t great. I hope he rushes for 2000 yards, but since this is a projection, I’m expecting a little regression.

The offensive line has slowly regressed; Taylor Lewan is a good LT, but there’s been a clear drop off in his play over the past couple of seasons. He and Ben Jones are solid but unspectacular in their positions. Nate Davis has settled in a run block over pass block guard. David Quessenberry is a significant (self-inflicted) loss at RT; they are counting on rookie Nicolas Petit-Friere or second-year Dillon Radunz, neither of which is likely to replicate Quessenberry’s 2021 performance. Aaron Brewer was a liability in 2021 as a swing guard and is back in 2022 as the presumed replacement for Rodger Saffold.

The receiving group was looking pretty good after the Titans stole Robert Woods for a fifth-round pick; unfortunately, they used that as an excuse to trade one of the best ten receivers in the league. They used the return for A.J. Brown on Treylon Burks, who I was a huge fan of, but it’s unclear whether they intend to use him. Kyle Phillips seems like he could be a slot god, which is always fun.

Defensively, the loss of Landry is significant. The Titans were two deep with pass rushers before that, and that’s generous to Bud Dupree. Dupree has talent, but it’s only consistently shown up in his contract year. Last year’s first round pick, Caleb Farley, was a high-risk high reward pick, and the reviews aren’t great; he’s already behind rookie Roger McCreary on the depth chart and probably shouldn’t see the field over Elijah Molden when the team is in nickel. Kristian Fulton is average on the other side. The team’s strengths are on the defensive interior, where Jonathan Simmons will need to pick up a ton of slack as a pass rusher, and at safety, where Kevin Byard is possibly the best in the league (Amani Hooker excelled in 2021, but some regression is likely). Depth is a concern everywhere. Schedule adjusted, the defense was 12^th in DVOA; talent wise, I don’t see this as an above average group.

I like Mike Vrabel in general. I don’t think he’s super analytically inclined, but when he purposely allowed a first down on second and short when the other team was running down the clock, I was beside myself. That was so good. He seems like he commands respect and delegates to his coordinators. He’s not great, but he’s certainly not bad. Todd Downing failed in Oakland, and while the Titans moved the ball last season, he was clearly a step below Arthur Smith. Paired with a tough schedule, the Titans will obviously regress. I can’t rule out the Tannehill-Henry magic winning the division again, and maybe Malik Willis provides some kind of spark, but I think it’s far more likely they fall hard below .500.