Denver Broncos
Denver was not bad with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and a defensive genius in Vic Fangio as head coach last season, and now they have Russell Wilson paired with Nathaniel Hackett. Seems better, but it’s hard to parse how this affects things down the roster. That’s the end of the introductory paragraph!
Russ struggled after returning from “mallet finger,” whatever the hell that is, but has otherwise been consistently borderline elite throughout his career. Russell Wilson is really good; this isn’t surprising. He doesn’t really run anymore, but he’ll still freelance quite a bit and hunt big plays downfield. It wouldn’t be shocking if a 33 going on 34-year-old coming off injury continued his regression, but given an offseason to recover, and free of Pete Carroll’s 1970’s offensive preferences, I’d imagine Russ has a couple more seasons left in him to be Russ.
The offensive line is average/above average across the board. Garrett Boles used to be a penalty machine; in 2020 he cut that out and became one of the best left tackles in the NFL, and in 2021 he found more of a middle ground. He’s established a clear floor and a very high ceiling. Dalton Risner has been solid as a pass block-first guard his entire career. Lloyd Cushenberry and Quinn Meinerz were good prospects that were solid in both aspects in 2021. Billy Turner has been about average since being paired with Hackett in Green Bay and is a nice upgrade on Bobbie Massie at right tackle.
The pass catchers should be thrilled. Courtland Sutton in particular has been killed by bad QB play and wins in the same spots Russ likes to take his shots. I have tried (and failed) to own him in every fantasy league I am in. I am a believer in Jerry Jeudy; he is one of the best route runners in the league and cleaned up the drop issues that plagued him as a rookie. The Tim Patrick injury isn’t great for the Broncos, but I want to see Jeudy play on the perimeter. K.J. Hamler will play the deep threat/slot role, and he should be good for a few big plays. Also, some guy named Jalen Virgil won a roster spot with a massive preseason. Maybe that’s something. When they run the ball, they should do it with Javonte Williams. He’s really good.
The defense was middle of the road in 2021, even with Fangio calling the shots. Patrick Surtain was very good as a rookie, and Justin Simmons continued to provide above average play at safety. Bradley Chubb struggled after getting hurt in week 2 but was a productive pass rusher his first three years and can probably be counted on for above average play on one edge. On the other, Randy Gregory was brought in. He has very little tread on his tires for a soon-to-be 30-year-old because of weed or some shit, and when he’s available, he’s a consistent pass rusher. Alexander Johnson is gone, but Josey Jewell is back from injury at LB. Shelby Harris is out, but D.J. Jones was brought in as an able replacement. Kyle Fuller and Bryce Callahan leaving and being replaced by K’Waun Williams feels like a lateral move, given Fuller’s struggles and Callahan’s injury proneness. Overall, the talent here feels slightly upgraded but roughly average, but with the caveat that Surtain in particular could take a major leap.
This is clearly a very talented team whose offense and defense could both hover around the top ten, but the big unknown is coaching. Fangio probably needed to go, but I was a little underwhelmed by the Nathaniel Hackett hire. Between Matt LaFleur, Luke Gutsy and Hackett, it’s unclear where the credit belongs, but Hackett earned a lot of praise from the Packers. I’m sure he’s fine, but I truly have no idea. His track record as an OC is a bit spotty, but it will come down to how he plays the CEO role. I also know basically nothing about Ejiro Evero, besides the fact that he’s definitely not better than Vic Fangio. But looking over his background – Fangio, Wade Phillips, Brandon Staley, Raheem Morris as bosses – he’ll probably do just fine. There is no such thing as an easy schedule in the AFC west, but the Broncos appear to have the easiest one. Unless Russ still has a bad case of mallet finger, the Broncos will be one of the best 5 or 6 teams in the AFC, maybe better (which could still easily mean no playoffs).
Kansas City Chiefs
Lots of 2-high is a great idea on defense but figuring it out isn’t rocket science. The Chiefs have the best QB in the league, and maybe the best offensive mind as their head coach and took an entire season to figure it out. It was pretty weird.
I don’t want to dive too far into Patrick Mahomes. He’s Patrick Mahomes, he’s good. But man, ADOT was down, the BTT were literally cut in half, and the TWP were the same. He was still really good, but his downfall until the very end was that defenses created a plan (usually 2-high, but the Bengals mixed things up) and he could not fully figure it out. Looking at his passing depths: deep throws were still there; between 0 and 19 yards he had 5 BTT and 13 TWP. In 2020, that was 20 and 6. That seems like the bulk of the difference right there. Will he re-adjust? I want to say “yes,” because he’s Patrick Mahomes, but man, he had a whole season.
The protection will be good again. The Chiefs overcorrected after their Super Bowl loss, and now they have a ton of assets tied up in a pretty good offensive line. The headliner is that they traded Tyreek Hill. Now that I’m looking into it, it seems like they’re doubling down on the dink and dunk and wait for a deep shot approach, which rendered Hill superfluous. They spread his money around on multiple weapons (while allocating draft picks toward the defense). I’m a fan of JuJu Smith-Schuster and I think his tiny ADOT was more about Ben Roethlisberger than his own talent, and maybe he can reclaim the intermediate part of the field for Mahomes. He’ll probably lead the WR group in targets. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the deep threat; he will make a bunch of plays downfield and offer very little anywhere else. The rest of the WR group needs to sort itself out, but the sooner Skyy Moore gets involved, the better. Aside from Travis Kelce, who seems to be slowing down a bit, there’s precious little playmaking in this group. For all the issues I’ve pointed out, the Chiefs still had a really good offense in 2021. My guess is that Mahomes bounces back some, but that it still regresses a little due to the lack of Hill.
The Chiefs poured some resources into their defense, but mostly draft capital; free agency was, at best a wash. Melvin Ingram was allowed to walk after a productive season; he’s replaced by Carlos Dunlap, who has fallen off a but at age 33 but still about as productive as Ingram as a base end, and rookie George Karlaftis, who showed a lot of juice in the preseason. Considering the likelihood that Ingram and Dunlap regress some, Karlaftis’ presence us what likely upgrades the EDGE group. DI is unchanged beside Chris Jones returning full time. He’s the second-best DI in football, so that seems like a very good thing. At safety, Tyrann Mathieu was allowed to walk, and Justin Reid was snagged to replace him early in free agency. There’s a nice age difference there, but Mathieu has been objectively the better player. If Reid rediscovers his rookie/second year form, this could be close to a wash, but as of now, it’s hard to ignore the difference in playmaking and versatility. Trent McDuffie replaces Charvarius Ward. Considering the scheme fit, I might prefer McDuffie straight up. Ward handled some tough opposition, but the coverage grades were typically average. There could be rookie struggles for McDuffie, but I’m pretty optimistic about him as a rookie. Elsewhere, the Chiefs got a nice rookie performance from Nick Bolton, and a nice second year performance out of Willie Gay, as well as solid efforts from the rest of their young secondary. The Chiefs were 24th in defensive DVOA and I think they improved a bit, but I’d imagine the real leap will take place after another offseason of this approach.
Before 2021 I would have made the argument that Andy Reid had taken the mantle as the top head coach in the NFL; now I think he’s somewhere in the top 5 but I need to see a real adjustment to the offense rather than a concession that chunk gains are going to be far less frequent. I admire his aggressiveness and his creativity; I can’t imagine a player wanting to play for anyone else, but his problems were already well documented (challenges, clock stuff, more penalties than you’d like). This is a big season for him. Steve Spags fixed the defense a couple years ago with his press man stylings; now that things have slowly regressed the past couple seasons, I think he has enough personnel to get them back near the middle of the league.
The schedule is the toughest in the league featuring some tough defenses. Is it preferable to go into this with, say, the 6th best offense and 18th best defense vs the 3rd best offense and 24th best defense? I have no idea. My guess is that they’ll probably be right there with Denver and the Chargers, and Mahomes will find a way to do just enough. If he can win 12 games and unleash another big time throw every game, he’ll be back in the MVP discussion.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were a bad playoff team in 2021, and now the whole regime is different. They made a couple massive additions and made a few baffling cuts late in camp. I’m inclined to expect some regression, because I haven’t forgotten what Josh McDaniels did a decade ago, but let’s see!
Derek Carr is a solid QB, who, after a couple seasons going overboard with dinking and dunking has raised his ADOT considerably. He thrived early in the season and delivered very few stinkers, all while his best receivers were a (very good) slot and a (very good tight end). Now he has his former college teammate who happens to be in the conversation for best WR in football added to that group. It’s hard to find a reason to believe Adams will regress much as a player; he’ll turn 30 late in the season, which should give him another couple of seasons right near this level of play. He’s a beast in every area of the field and wins with separation, YAC, and contested catch ability. The one small reason for pause in his own profile is that his slot usage really ramped up his past two seasons in Green Bay, and I’d imagine Vegas will have him stuck to the outside with Renfrow unmovable from inside. That’s a minor concern; he’s still going to get peppered with targets, and perhaps he’ll have a chance to do more downfield. I don’t know about the trade, but I’m not worried about Davante Adams.
There are three high end weapons, which is more than most teams have, but it is a concern that the number basically stops there. Josh Jacobs is an average back whose figures to lose touches to the below average Ameer Abdullah and a wild card in rookie Zamir White, and this matters because McDaniels will run the ball (though he’s pretty flexible; this is matchup dependent). The third receiver is Mack Hollins, a physically gifted journeyman, and after him there’s….um, is Tyron Johnson that guy from the Chargers? I don’t know these people. Adams and Renfrow better stay healthy.
The offensive line has been a disaster the past couple of seasons, and it currently looks worse than it ever has. Aside from Kolton Miller and (maybe Andre James), three projected starters are backup caliber players. I don’t know who Lester Cotton is. I do know that John Simpson has some theoretical upside and wasn’t a horrible pass blocker in his 2021 snaps, but the run blocking dragged that down considerably. I also know that Jermaine Eluemunor can potentially refrain from embarrassing himself after some decent results as New England’s swing tackle in 2020, but buddy, this cannot be your third best offensive lineman. I’m not going to claim that Alex Leatherwood will be anything, but I’m quite certain the Raiders could have found room for him on the off chance that Lester Cotton is, in fact, the practice squad player he’s been for 3 years. The good news is, none of the pass blocking grades are as bad as the run blocking grades, and Derek Carr gets the ball off quick (possibly by necessity). It’s usually not going to kill the offense, but good God, Lester Cotton vs. Chris Jones twice a year. God help us all.
There was a bit of an overhaul on defense, but as for the key returnees: Maxx Crosby’s production matched what I think a lot of us already saw on tape, and now he’s one of the best edge defenders in football. Nate Hobbs was a shockingly elite nickel corner as a rookie, and he’s certainly worth a look outside. Trevon Moehrig was right here with Hobbs in rookie production and has a chance to ascend to elite status at safety. Denzel Perryman will continue stuffing the run and looking lost in coverage; Divine Deablo is a safety convert who has a chance to be solid vs. both. Jonathan Abram is bad at everything. Clellin Ferrell is still around for some reason, too.
The team traded Yannick Ngakoue for Rock Ya-Sin, which I think was win both for cap reasons, and because Ya-Sin seems to be a much better player than the public gives him credit for. He is going to take Casey Hayward’s snaps, which is probably a downgrade, because Hayward is literally always good regardless of what injuries or age would have you believe. They also traded Trayvon Mullen for nothing. Mullen was hurt, and wasn’t great in his three years, but flashes were there. It was too soon to give up on him. They brought in Bilal Nichols, a reasonably productive interior lineman, and Chandler Jones, a borderline Hall of Fame edge, who is kind of a slightly better version of Yannick these days: high end pass rushing, very little in run defense. That works just fine for an edge, but it’s worth noting that 5 of his 11 sacks came in one game. The pressures were mostly still there, but there’s a little risk here in his age 32 season.
I think it’s fair to consider the Raiders roster pretty significantly upgraded; the team had the talent of a 7-win team and won 10 games; now the talent may actually be around 10 games, but a very tough schedule could have them back down to 7. I think they slightly upgraded at DC with Patrick Graham in over Gus Bradley, but is it better to have Josh McDaniels doing his Belichick impression rather than a universally respected Rich Bisaccia letting his coordinators do their thing? History says that’s a risky proposition. Another team that should’ve just hired by man Eberflus.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers, like Vegas, also went hard to maximize their window. The difference is that most would agree that this was an extremely good idea. They focused on their 26th ranked defense; let’s change things up and start there:
The pieces that were already in place that were undeniably good: Derwin James, a versatile safety that can cover and come down hard against the run, which is essential in Brandon Staley’s 2-high defense. Joey Bosa is one of the better edge defenders in the league. Asante Samuel Jr. started hot as a rookie but fell off as the year wore on. He was one of my favorite prospects in his draft and I’d expect him to put a full season together. Drue Tranquil carved out a role as one of the better coverage LB in the NFL, and Nasir Adderley was a perfectly useful partner for James. Michael Davis can hold up at corner. Kenneth Murray was pretty lost and is in danger of busting, but he has a shot at being a useful early down type.
The Chargers biggest problem was their run D. For Staley, that’s kind of by design, but some big space eaters are needed up front to keep things reasonable. Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson are not exciting, but they fit the bill. The big free agency move was J.C. Jackson, who has something like 20 interceptions over the past 2 seasons. Easiest prediction in the world: he will not have 10 interceptions again. He has shown, however, that he has the rare skill of creating turnovers, and he’ll still get his shared. His coverage grade won’t look quite as flashy, but he’s a credible top corner. The other big one was sending a second-round pick to reunite Staley with Khalil Mack. When Mack is healthy, he is still elite across the board. It made sense for the Bears to shed his salary, but this was an absolute steal for the Bears. If health cooperates, the Chargers could jump into the top 10 in defense.
Offensively, Justin Herbert is a top 3-5 QB in the NFL. He was very good in nearly every game last season. The next step is to adjust his approach a bit. 27 big time throws with a 7.9 ADOT with his arm talent is not enough, and a lot of those came in late game situations when things probably could have already been put away. The solution should be relatively simple – more deep shots. Fewer than 10% of his passes traveling over 20 yards is leaving way too much on the table. This is a Joe Lombardi problem, first and foremost, but Brandon Staley is smart enough to offer his two cents.
The weaponry is borderline elite; Kenan Allen is steadily a top 15 WR, and Mike Williams, while occasionally disappearing, emerged as a 1B. They’d be smart to give him more opportunities down the field. Jalen Guyton is a great situational downfield burner, and Josh Palmer is a nice backup at both the X and Z. Losing Jared Cook to…retirement(?)…hurts a bit, but Gerald Everett is another nice flier. Austin Ekeler is one of the best do-it-all backs in the league.
The offensive line also likely got better with the addition of Zion Johnson at right guard. Trey Pipkins appears to have beaten out Storm Norton at right tackle, also an upgrade. Matt Feiler is a nice starter opposite Johnson, while Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley are all pro caliber at LT and C.
This is an extremely deep and talented team, that did underperform in 2021. No intelligent person is going to take issue with Staley’s aggressive fourth down tendencies. He does what gives him the most expected EPA. That’s what any coach should do. It’s worth wondering if he’s not the immediate top tier coach everyone assumed he was (and most still assume he is). This team lost a ton of close games, was penalized a ton, and Staley’s side of the ball was really bad. He also made a pretty questionable hire at OC in Joe Lombardi. I am giving him another season with the benefit of the doubt, but I’m not going to argue if someone doesn’t see it with him (as long as the reasons is not the fourth down stuff).
Mostly NFL Draft Stuff But With a Detached Irony and Probably Other Stuff Too 