It occurs to me I’m not going to finish this before the Rams play on Thursday so let’s change the order
Arizona Cardinals
This is semi-anecdotal (the numbers kinda bear this out, but it’s not drastic), but it seems like Kyler Murray, and the Cardinals, have started extremely strong and regressed hard in the second half two seasons in a row. Last season there was a pretty good excuse; Murray missed three games with an ankle issue, and while his scrambling was infrequent and hit or miss last season compared to 2020, it clearly affected that part of his game. After some offseason drama, Kyler received a new contract, which was followed by more drama, but now he’s back and (probably unfairly) under a microscope in 2022.
Kyler was a unique prospect that was well worth the top pick, and while there have been some bumps, he has been a great player it in spite of his offensive scheme, which makes very little effort to maximize all of his talents. In 2021 his big-time throws were way up, and he was a little unlucky that 13 turnover worthy plays resulted in 12 interceptions (though also lucky not to have lost any fumbles). He was the best deep ball passer in football on a pretty high volume; whatever issues he had were underneath. If he could put together his gains as a passer with something resembling his 2020 rushing performance, he’d be a legitimate MVP candidate.
His receiver group will look different. On the plus side, Hollywood Brown is an upgrade on Christian Kirk as a gamebreaker on the outside (though, like Kirk, he’ll probably spend too much time in the slot). DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for 6 games: that’s bad enough, but he’s also coming off a torn MCL, and when he was on the field, didn’t look himself. He could bounce back, but he wasn’t exactly winning with separation in the first place. It’s possible he’s reached the point in his career that he’s just a contested guy. Speaking of which, A.J. Green is still here. Rondale Moore is a nice slot weapon that Kliff Kingsbury totally overthought and used him almost entirely on screens. The offensive line is full of veterans that have done a decent job in pass protection and a poor job run blocking; there are worse ways to cobble together an offensive line, but we’ve reached a point that it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see some problematic regression across the board.
I had to do a triple take when I saw Arizona ranked sixth in defensive DVOA. They led the league in recovered fumbles and were middle of the pack in interceptions. They were eleventh in points and yards allowed. Props to Vance Joseph but looking at the personnel….that’s not going to happen again. The most significant addition was Trayvon Mullen, who has been inconsistent for Vegas, but clearly has the tools to take a leap in the right situation. That should roughly offset the Robert Alford loss, but elsewhere, the Cardinals will be replacing productive players (Chandler Jones, Jordan Hicks, Jordan Phillips, Devon Kennard) internally or with recent draft picks. There is some room for improvement versus 2021: Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons still have potential to be a dynamic LB duo, and Budda Baker could easily return to his elite self, but overall, this is not an impressive looking group.
Vance Joseph is a terrific defensive coordinator, and there should be a floor on this defense as a result. Kliff Kingsbury, on the other hand, seems to be extremely lucky to have the record he does. I like that he is pass happy and let’s Kyler make things happen, but his play-calling is unimaginative, his fourth down decision making is absolutely bizarre, and his teams are consistently at the top of the league in penalties. Kyler can drag this team to some wins, but given a tough schedule, I would not be surprised if this were the season that sent Kliff back to college.
Los Angeles Rams
Hey, these guys won the Super Bowl! Good for them! It’s boring to hand wave the Super Bowl winner and call them a lock for the postseason, Super Bowl hangovers do exist. But the Rams have been good every year under Sean McVay, and the won the Super Bowl the moment they had a good quarterback. They’re probably going to be really good again, and they probably won’t win the Super Bowl because teams don’t win twice in a row.
In terms of things that could possibly go wrong in the regular season, Matthew Stafford could regress in his age 34 season. He is not, and has never been, Tom Brady or Drew Brees. Aging could work differently for him. This seems a little unlikely considering his age 33 season was the best of his career, but regression is on the table. That McVay has won with Jared Goff, and won a playoff game with John Wolford, even if that happens, I’m not super concerned about this.
The offensive line will be worse. Andrew Whitworth retired while still somehow being on the of best ≈3 left tackles in the league. Luckily, Joseph Noteboom took a big leap in a small sample, and should be at least adequate in his place. Austin Corbett also left as a free agent, and his replacement, Coleman Shelton, is a little less promising as a prospect. As a whole, this still looks like a perfectly average group, but the potential is there for a weak link or three, which would be a problem.
I feel good about the weapons; Cooper Kupp is a stud that can’t possibly top his 2021 season, but he’s Cooper Kupp. He’ll be really good. Allen Robinson will have a good QB for the first time in his career, and he might even run more than a hitch route. He’s another guy I should have drafted in fantasy and somehow didn’t. I think he’s at least equivalent to Robert Woods, with much higher upside. They have a group of pretty intriguing secondary receivers; I’m just going to name Lance McCutcheon because I hope he gets to play. Also, they can always play the Odell Beckham card if need be, once he’s healed and ready to sign. Beckham is still a top 10-15 WR, I will not back off of that. The Rams finished 8th in offensive DVOA in 2021; even if things go wrong, that seems pretty close to their floor.
On defense, they still have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. No one in the league can top that as a pass rusher/coverage guy duo. They lose the half season of Von Miller they had, but that basically puts them back where they were at the trade deadline, which was just fine. They swap out Darious Williams for a Troy Hill reunion; that’s a modest downgrade. Their big upgrade is Bobby Wagner, who, at the very least, will help out their run defense. The Rams will keep playing light boxes and stop the run well enough to justify it. I’m sure they’d love an alpha pass rusher, but this is a very solid defense. Whatever they deem their biggest need at the deadline, they’ll have no problem trading for it.
Sean McVay is great. He makes the most cowardly fourth down decisions possible, but he understands how football is won in this decade better than any coach in football. His teams don’t take many penalties. As long as he has any talent at all, he’ll find a way to maximize it. He’ll keep churning out QB coaches or OC’s that become 30-year-old head coaches because he’s an excellent teacher. Defensively, I expected Raheem Morris to be a big step down from Brandon Staley in 2021; he was not. The strategy was basically the same, and the defense was excellent. This is arguably the best coaching staff in the NFL. Realistically, if the Rams don’t exceed ≈10 wins, it will be because the offensive line regresses hard and the schedule is extremely tough, but I wouldn’t count on that.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers limped into the playoffs after starting 3-5 and falling behind by 3 scores to the Rams in week 18, only to come back in that game, and to come within 3 points of a Super Bowl appearance. That was with Jimmy Garoppolo, who against all odds, is still on the roster, but for now has been officially supplanted as starter by Trey Lance.
I liked the 49ers plan for a successor at QB. They were aware that the roster was set up well going forward, and they’d never be bad enough to get into the top 3, so they struck while they were close and made a reasonable trade to get into the top 3 in a good draft for quarterbacks. It’s a little problematic to me that their choice was between Mac Jones and Trey Lance when Justin Fields was right there, but whatever, at least they took a guy with big upside, who had a year to learn behind a competent quarterback.
The question is whether Trey Lance has a chance of being a good passer right now. We know Shanahan will produce a workable offense centered around the run game, and he’ll be creative in getting Lance involved in that. Lance may be the best running QB in the NFL, so there is a floor – he’s not going to be unplayable. I liked Lance as a prospect, I think I had him as QB3, behind Lawrence and Fields, somewhere around the 8th best prospect in the draft. But watching some highlights from last season and this preseason, Lance’s mechanics are still pretty wonky, and he still seems a little slow in his decision making. He was far better without play-action in last season’s limited sample size, which jibes with what I saw of him in college; that could be a little problematic in a Shanahan offense. He seemed to hold the ball too long and was particularly ineffective throwing in the intermediate range. This was in an offense that was probably not optimized for him; now that the 49ers have had an offseason knowing he’ll be the starter, that should change a bit. But given what he’s shown, and some pretty uneven reports out of training camp, I think it’s fair to expect some growing pains with him as a passer while the coaching staff figures out exactly how they want to use him.
One problematic area for a QB that seems to like to hold the ball is the offensive line. Trent Williams is his left tackle, and I’m just going to assume he’s the best in football until he’s not. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is coming off a torn quad, and he’s been uneven as a pass blocker in his four years but improved there in 2021. I wouldn’t worry too much about McGlinchey. The interior, on the other hand, has some real disaster potential. Aaron Banks was over-drafted in the second round a season ago and saw 5 snaps. There’s no real way of knowing what he is, but it is discouraging that a second-round guard was buried on the depth chart. Feels like a pretty significant downgrade on Laken Tomlinson. Jake Brendel replaces the retired Alex Mack at center; again, there’s very little regular season to go on. Finally, fourth round rookie Spencer Burford is going to start at right guard. He’s raw, but he was a good high school prospect that made his way to UTSA and was a good college tackle. There are some intriguing traits and should at least be an upgrade on Daniel Brunskill. For what little it’s worth, Brendel was fine in the preseason while Banks and Burford struggled.
The weapons are pretty good. Whoever the running back is will have a good season. George Kittle might be the best tight end in the league, especially taking blocking into account. Deebo Samuel emerged as one of the top weapons in the league, and Brandon Aiyuk appears to be allowed to play again. Ray-Ray McCloud will probably do a couple cool things. One more receiver might be nice, but in terms of receiving threats, it’s hard to give a young QB much more to work with.
The defense has a ton of studs, namely Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, but the entire front 7 is very good and added some nice complimentary pieces in free agency and the draft, though D.J. Jones is a tough loss as a run stuffer up front. A third-year breakout from Javon Kinlaw would be most welcome. The Niners really needed another corner, and they added one in Charvarius Ward. He’s not the stickiest in coverage, but he’s best in press-man, and he doesn’t allow YAC. Emmanuel Moseley has been a great find as their number 2, but slot corner could be a problem early on with K’Waun Williams gone and Jason Verrett holding down his favorite spot, PUP. Finally, with Jimmie Ward starting the season on IR and Jaquiski Tartt a free agent, safety could be an issue early on. For now, their options are special teams types.
Kyle Shanahan’s reputation probably exceeds his won-loss record, but his best-case scenario so far has been a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo, and that best case scenario hasn’t played out often. His offenses work with decent quarterback play, and it’s hard to deny his results on the high end (1 for 2 in NFCCG and coordinated the 2016 Falcons). He shares the fourth down weenie trait with the other members of his coaching tree, and he’s middle of the road in penalties, so his value is very much tied to his offensive acumen. He’s a difference maker there, though. DeMeco Ryans is a cover-3 guy, which isn’t my preference, but he’s been very good with the talent he has, particularly leveraging his 3 excellent linebackers to take pressure off of his secondary in coverage. He will be a head coach soon. Schedule wise, the Niners are about neutral, though among the NFC West, it’s by far the easiest. Lance and the offensive line are big wild cards, but if the offense can just be middle of the pack, I think the defense is top 5 caliber, and will allow the Niners to contend for the division.
Seattle Seahawks
Without looking, I want to say the Seahawks are a contender for the top pick, but I also really liked their draft. Pete Carroll, as much as I disagree with his coaching philosophy, tends to win. But trading Russell Wilson and cutting Bobby Wagner in the same offseason isn’t great for the short term!
Geno Smith was not bad last season; he actually looked kind of good in the game Russell Wilson got hurt. It’s entirely possible that he’s an okay bridge quarterback at this point in his career, in the Ryan Fitzpatrick mold. Last year was the first time we’ve seen him for any real period of time since 2017, when he was fine in one start for the Giants. Prior to that, he was a disaster for the Jets nearly a decade ago. We know there’s a ceiling here (Fitzpatrick), and I personally doubt he can reach that ceiling. But considering the way Pete Carroll wants to play, he might be fine. Incidentally, I was the last Drew Lock supporter in the world. Now he has no supporters. Poor Drew Lock.
The WR are really good, and it’s a shame they’ll likely be underutilized even more than usual. Noah Fant should be third on the team in targets; he’s extremely talented, but he’s in a timeshare at TE with Will Dissly for some reason. Rashaad Penny is always hurt but he’s currently healthy and was a monster down the stretch in 2021. I’d personally let him loose again, but once Kenneth Walker is healthy, he’ll factor into the backfield situation. Normally none of this would matter, but the Seahawks want to lead the league in rush attempts, so having good running backs is preferred. This could be a pretty good 1-2 punch. There’s some turnover on the offensive line, which is probably a good thing. Gabe Jackson and Damien Lewis are the incumbents at guard; they can’t pass block, but they can run block, which is what Pete is looking for. Austin Blythe is occasionally a competent center. There are a wide range of outcomes with him, but it’s no worse than Ethan Pocic. The X factors are Charles Cross, the 9th overall pick at LT, and Abe Lucas, a third-round pick. It’s refreshing to see Seattle invest in offensive line prospects that are actually solid prospects. They both performed pretty well in the preseason, so I’m bullish on them to at least turn in average seasons.
It’s worth pointing out that the Seahawks somehow ranked 6th in offensive DVOA in 2021. It appears that’s on the strength of the fewest turnovers in the league, against a pretty tough schedule. It’s a nice formula, but there is no way it’s repeatable. Something in the low teens would be a good result for them. The defense, on the other hand, was 21st, and that seems right in line with the talent they had. Jamal Adams has settled in as a 4th LB masquerading as a safety, which is a shame considering his talent. D.J. Reed, Carlos Dunlap and Bobby Wagner are out. Jordyn Brooks should be fine as Wagner’s replacement, and Reed will be replaced by some combination of 4th round rookie Coby Bryant and 5th rounder Tariq Woolen. I like Bryant, and Woolen could be literally anything. Quandre Diggs is solid on the back end. The front 7 has some talent; Darrell Taylor and rookie Boye Mafe are candidates to emerge. As a whole though, this is a transitional season for the defense. If a couple of these young players emerge as pieces of the next good Seahawks defense, that’s a win.
I’ve already given my thoughts on Carroll. Players seem to like him, he wins more than you’d expect, but he’s frustratingly set in his ways on offense. Shane Waldron did well in 2021, and if the team moves the ball this season, he’ll deserve some looks as a head coach. Carroll has been more flexible defensively, allowing some influence from 2-high guys like Sean Desai (technically not the DC, but I assume he’ll have a voice), but the personnel just isn’t there. This season could be a 3-4 win disaster – the floor of this defense is *low*, and the offense isn’t much higher – but considering the track records involved, something like 6 wins wouldn’t be completely shocking.
Mostly NFL Draft Stuff But With a Detached Irony and Probably Other Stuff Too 