Dallas Cowboys
2021 was basically the best-case scenario for the Cowboys; they went 12-5, they led the league in DVOA on the strength of the second ranked defense, which easily led the league in takeaways, and 6th offense (though they led the league in yards and points). It’s a shame they were upset in the playoffs by the red-hot 49ers because none of that is going to happen again this year.
Dak was better than anyone could have expected coming off a pretty gruesome looking leg injury the season prior; he was more aggressive than he’d ever been despite what seemed to be slightly deteriorated arm strength. The ball placement was on point and despite using his legs less, he avoided hits and turned in his best season. At 29, he’s in his prime. If the Cowboys offense drops off, it will be in spite of Dak’s best efforts.
The offensive line still has Zack Martin. That’s good; he’s the best guard in the league. Tyler Biadasz was solid after a rough rookie season; he’s probably fine. Connor McGovern is a downgrade on Connor Williams, but I’ve always thought he was worth a shot. If he struggles, first-round rookie Tyler Smith might be a decent enough pass protector. The Cowboys have been good at producing offensive linemen, so I’ll trust that their eval of Smith was better than mine. The tackles are downgraded. First there was the self-inflicted wound releasing La’El Collins, apparently due to some combination of his salary and preferring Terrence Steele. La’El Collins is a much, much better right tackle. Steele has held up fine as a swing tackle, but with some terrible performances thrown in. He might be fine with a consistent home on the offensive line, but I would expect some inconsistency. Tyronn Smith is hurt and out for the season. The team signed Jason Peters to replace him, who was pretty good as a 39-year-old for the Bears. He won’t be Tyronn Smith, and I’d bet against him being 39-year-old Jason Peters, but he’ll probably be fine. The line as a whole will probably be above average, but a major strength became above average, and there were no gains elsewhere. That’s no good.
The skill group is also worse off, with the caveat that CeeDee Lamb could get more opportunities. He was great in 2021, despite bizarrely losing time to Michael Gallup opposite Amari Cooper in 2 WR sets. Gallup is a nice receiver, and he is back, but will miss at least the first couple of games as he works back from a torn ACL. They lost Cedrick Wilson in free agency and traded Amari Cooper for nothing, and while Cooper is probably entering the downswing of his career, he’s better than the combination of injured James Washington, rookie Jalen Tolbert and blocking specialist (?) Noah Brown. They used the franchise tag on Dalton Shultz, who is a fine tight end, but not really a difference maker. Ezekiel Elliott will probably continue getting carries Tony Pollard deserves. Kellen Moore seems like a talented offensive coordinator, but a downgraded supporting cast and offensive line isn’t the best news for Dak.
I have a theory that getting interceptions is a repeatable skill for a team that lasts exactly one season. That’s a lot bolder than the alternative, that’s it’s not a repeatable skill for a team at all. It just happens due to some combination of above average coverage and luck. Either way, the Cowboys are not going to intercept 26 passes again. They might not intercept half of that. The secondary is basically the same as last season, with the exception that Malik Hooker is the unquestioned free safety opposite Damontae Kazee. Hooker is basically league average with some upside, so he should be fine. His partner Jayron Kearse was a revelation last year as a designated TE coverer; it was also unlike anything he had done before in his career. He’ll be good; he probably won’t be as good. The corner group is solid; I’d go as far as to say Trevon Diggs is underrated in coverage by PFF, and clearly has a receiver-like nose for the ball. He’ll get some interceptions. He will not get 11 interceptions. It’ll be like, 5 or 6.
The other studs on defense are second year LB/EDGE Micah Parsons and regular EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence. I have nothing bad to say about Parsons. He’ll be one of the best defenders in the league for the next 10 years. Lawrence missed most of 2021 with a foot injury; he’ll offset the loss of Randy Gregory, if healthy. Elsewhere, the Cowboys are pretty weak up the middle; run defense could be a problem. I’m mildly interested in how Dan Quinn uses Anthony Barr, but he’s got a wide range of outcomes.
I’d be more optimistic about the Cowboys if they had a different coach, but Mike McCarthy is a mess. He has two good coordinators, so he’s basically playing CEO, but he is terrible at that. His teams commit a ton of penalties, and while he has made some good positive EPA decisions (going for two down 9 late in a game), he’s just kind of a dumbass. I don’t think Dan Quinn is anything special but firing McCarthy and promoting Quinn was the pretty obvious way to go.
New York Giants
The Giants have been poorly run for about a decade now, but thankfully, Joe Judge and David Gettleman were fired. Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll are in and had a fairly productive offseason. The most important question now is whether Daniel Jones is salvageable.
Jones was pressured at a slightly above average rate, and like most QBs, he was a worse passer when pressured. More importantly, he fumbles *a lot* when pressured. He didn’t make many big time throws last season, but he’s shown that he can at a decent rate. Full disclosure, I liked Jones as a prospect. I don’t think he can be more than a Tannehill type given what he’s shown, but I suspect with the right coaching, he can help a team win. It’s encouraging that Brian Daboll has been insistent that Jones let loose more often. I don’t think Jones is talented enough to fully unload without throwing more picks, but if they happen downfield more often, it’s a huge net gain.
There are questions at receiver. Kenny Golladay was brutal in his Giants debut, and it sounds like he would have been released if it made financial sense to the Giants. It’s a little hard to believe after his time in Detroit, but it sounds like he could get buried on the depth chart. Kadarius Toney seemed upset with trade rumors this offseason and didn’t report to voluntary minicamp, then missed most of training camp with an injury, but it seems like he will be ready for week 1. I thought he was a weird first round pick, and his rookie season wasn’t necessarily *good*, but he went nuts for a two week stretch and showed some major breakout potential. He’s not who I would want to count on as my top WR, but that’s what he is for the Giants. Sterling Shepard is back and will be steady and boring, like Marvin Jones, if and when he’s healthy. Wan’Dale Robinson, who seemed like a reach in the second round, appears to be the Giants slot/gadget type. I think he’s fairly limited to the short area of the field, but if Toney can occupy the boundary, Robinson could make some noise with the ball in his hands. Finally, Saquon Barkley is still a difference maker when healthy. Running the ball isn’t really what Daboll has done with the Bills, but it would be bizarre not to use him given the rest of the team.
The offensive line could not pass block last season, and the Giants brought in a couple of solid upgrades in Mark Glowisnki in free agency and Evan Neal in the draft. Jon Feliciano isn’t very good, but knows Daboll from Buffalo, so he’ll play center. Also Ben Bredeson is listed as a starter from some reason. There are still too many weak links here, but Jones should have a better shot.
The Giants were last in offensive DVOA last season. Jones wasn’t great, but a lot of that was Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm taking turns playing themselves out of the league. I think Jones will throw downfield more often; I wish he had better protection and/or some downfield targets to help make that happen. It’s impossible to know what Daboll is as a head coach, but he’ll have a positive influence on this offense.
Defensively, they made one potentially huge addition: Kayvon Thibodeaux with the 5th overall pick. I think he could be a great player immediately. Unfortunately, he suffered a sprained MCL on a cut block that may or may not have been dirty. I have no opinion on the matter, I will never bother watching. Thibodeaux may miss week one but shouldn’t be out much longer than that. Azeez Ojulari was productive and should form a nice 1-2 punch, but the edge depth is pretty poor behind them. Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams are a nice duo inside, which is good, because their linebackers are two special teamers. The big loss is James Bradberry, who the team used as their top corner. He was better in 2020, but he was reliable and sticky in coverage, just brutal at preventing YAC. Adoree’ Jackson was lock down in coverage last year, and Xavier McKinney emerged as a fantastic safety. Between Darnay Holmes and Aaron Robinson, nickel should be covered, but one will have to play the boundary. There’s upside there, but depth is an issue all over this defense.
The Giants ranked 18th in DVOA last season. Wink Martindale was fired in Baltimore and will probably be a little more blitz happy than Patrick Graham. That could be problematic with a young secondary, but the Giants have been near the bottom in pressure rate for some time now. As for Brian Daboll, again, there’s really no telling what he’ll be as a head coach, but he was extremely successful and adaptable as Buffalo’s coordinator, and he’s worked under the Belichick tree, and crucially, not under the Belichick tree. There’s plenty to like.
It’s true that the Giants essentially spent this offseason shedding salary and there are still holes all over the roster. They’re not the most talented team in the division. But given the coaching change and the fact that the Giants have the easiest schedule in the league, I might just go out on a limb here.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles made the playoffs with 9 wins last season. The best team they beat, in terms of win total, were the Saints. They had 9 wins. The second-best team was a 4-way tie between Denver, Washington, and Atlanta. They had 7. To their credit, all but 2 of their 8 losses were to playoff teams, and 1 of those was to the Chargers, who should have been a playoff team. 1 of their 17 games was a remotely surprising result. That’s pretty impressive. But the Eagles were not a playoff caliber team. If they hadn’t upgraded their roster, I’d have no problem predicting a free fall in the standings. But they did, and their schedule is extremely easy (6 2021 playoff teams, and not the good ones), so it’s not going to be that simple.
Jalen Hurts is fun to watch and proved he can move a team with very little at receiver. His running is far ahead of his passing, but he’s young. It feels like he’s getting a lot more love than his play has warranted, however. He had some nice games as a passer, but none of those came against good defenses. He was a disaster against Tampa Bay in the playoffs. He was sheltered by play action quite a bit and wasn’t very good throwing downfield. That’s all pretty harsh; he’s totally fine as someone’s starter, but he’s not going to prop up his supporting cast. He’s a lower tier starter until he improves as a passer, and if I’m going back to my eval of him, I don’t think there’s a lot left to unlock here. This is probably what Hurts is.
The supporting cast is very good. The offensive line is possibly the best in the league, and they go about 7 deep there. Miles Sanders is a talented back that deserves to shine more, especially with a QB that props up the run game. Devonta Smith was very good on relatively low volume as a rookie and Dallas Goedert shined once Zach Ertz was traded. They also upgraded from Jalen Reagor, one of the worst WR in the league, to A.J. freaking Brown, one of the best. That’s undeniably a great addition for Philadelphia, and his ability to win at every level fits with every QB. Some part of me feels like all of these resources are somewhat wasted in an offense that isn’t going to throw that efficiently, but there will be big plays. Even with my criticism of Hurts, this offense should be around the top ten. There is a ton of talent.
The defense also followed the pattern of good against bad teams, bad against good teams. But they were really bad against good teams. They upgraded opposite Darius Slay with James Bradberry; that should help when Slay regresses from an All-Pro-caliber 2021. They are going to try Chauncey Gardner-Johnson at safety. He’s listed as the strong safety, but if his job ends up being to cover tight ends and slot receivers when they stay in base, that could work out pretty well. Haason Reddick will join Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, and Josh Sweat to form a very solid EDGE group, though he’ll line up as a SAM in base. They are 4 deep at IDL, including their first-round pick Jordan Davis, and their LBs are versatile. There’s no denying that the Eagles are deep pretty much everywhere, and Jonathan Gannon seems to have a solid plan here. I’d expect a better effort against good teams.
Howie Roseman has gotten some hate, but man, the guy is so good at managing a roster. It’s a little hard to know how real some of the PFF grades are up and down this depth chart given the easy schedule last year. Some of them will regress. I question whether this is the right QB to be going all in with. But there is so much talent surrounding him, and the schedule is even easier this year. I learned pretty much nothing about Nick Siriani as a head coach last season, and I doubt this is the year I learn anything more. But it’s hard to imagine the Eagles not being right back in the mix.
Washington Commanders
After riding their defense to a fluky playoff appearance in 2020, the defense fell from 3rd to 27th in 2021 and the Football Team fell to third place in the east. They have a new name and probably their best QB since Kirk Cousins, which seems nice, but in reality, they settled for option D in both cases.
The Red Wolves Commanders quickly realized they weren’t contenders for Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers and instead of waiting out the market (Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield for free), they jumped at the chance to trade a second and third round pick for Carson Wentz. I covered Wentz when talking about the Colts. He had some good games, and his overall numbers were fine. He also had some horrible games at the worst possible moments. His teammates don’t seem to like him very much. And yet, Washington has a much better QB than they’ve had since Kirk Cousins? Pre-injury Alex Smith? It’s been pretty bleak.
The offensive line was banged up last season, yet every combination was pretty good. They saved money by letting Brandon Scherff walk and cutting Ereck Flowers, but Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner have reunited and shouldn’t be major downgrades. At worst, the offensive line should be average. They added Jahan Dotson in the draft and will hopefully get a healthy season from Curtis Samuel. They’ll join Terry McLaurin, a borderline top 10 receiver, who has a chance to finally put up top 10 numbers. Wentz won’t have much of a run game to protect him compared to Indianapolis; it does not help that the presumptive starting running back got shot, but depending on how quickly Dotson finds his niche (I think he’s a safe, unspectacular receiver who falls somewhere in the Emmanuel Sanders range), this should be an upgraded group for Wentz.
The defense was bound to regress after 2020, but the extent of the drop off was a little shocking. The driving force behind their 2020 dominance was Chase Young, but he was simply above average in 2021 before tearing his ACL, which could keep him out nearly half of 2022. IT would be surprising if, coming off injury, 2022 was the year he regained his rookie form. The rest of the defensive line was pretty good; Jonathan Allen had a career year, Montez Sweat was a little worse after also battling injury, and Daron Payne was a solid pass rusher, but struggled against the run. Washington continued to go back to the Alabama DI well with Phidarian Mathis in the second round, so depth should not be a major issue there, but the EDGE group looks rough until Young makes it back. The LB should be fine; Cole Holcomb has emerged as a reliable every down starter, and Jamin Davis should improve after an up and down rookie season. The secondary was the downfall in 2021. Kendall Fuller had a nice season and has become one of the more underappreciated corners in the league. He’s a credible top corner, with the caveat that he spends a decent amount of time in the slot. William Jackson was an exciting addition in free agency but was awful to before a week 6 injury; he picked it up after returning week 10 and I’d expect some positive season-long regression for him in 2022. Corner depth is a little shaky, and the second outside corner in nickel will likely be Benjamin St. Juste, who had a rough season. I didn’t love his prospect profile, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington look elsewhere if he struggles early on. There’s some addition by subtraction with Landon Collins out; some combo of Bobby McCain should be an upgrade there.
Ron Rivera is a competent head coach. He’s settled into a fairly conservative approach after flirting with his Riverboat Ron persona, but he commands respect from his players and his teams typically don’t commit penalties (granted, the infighting between Payne and Allen last season was a bit concerning). I’m not sure how Jack Del Rio could be brought back between his racist tweets and terrible 2021, but he’s still here. The defense is bound to rebound a bit, but Del Rio’s presence puts a cap on it. I’m intrigued by what Scott Turner can do with a competent QB. I don’t think the results will blow anyone away (besides maybe McLaurin’s individual numbers) but the team should improve a bit, given they, like all NFC east teams, share a pretty easy schedule. They should be in the playoff hunt.
Mostly NFL Draft Stuff But With a Detached Irony and Probably Other Stuff Too 