Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons half-tried to improve their roster while narrowly missing out on the chance trade for a sex criminal. They instead swapped out Matt Ryan for Marcus Mariota. Calvin Ridley got suspended for gambling. God damn, I’m getting so sick of these, but quitting with 4 left sure seems weird.
Mariota was benched by a staff coached by Arthur Smith, so I found it a little surprising they moved to him so quickly after trading Matt Ryan. Mariota hasn’t necessarily been bad in his career but was rightfully benched for Ryan Tannehill in 2019 and the Titans immediately went from a bad team to an AFCCG participant. You can’t be that much worse than Ryan Tannehill. He looked okay in his rare opportunities in Vegas, and he still has wheels. It wouldn’t be crazy if he had developed as a passer in his time on the bench, but he wasn’t a very good one with Tennessee. He was basically what Jalen Hurts, and frankly, it was pretty insane that he was a consensus top 2 pick considering his arm talent. He can move an offense if his legs stay involved. If Mariota is benched again, it would be for rookie Desmond Ridder. Lots of people liked Ridder. I suppose I can squint and see Dak upside. Wasn’t really my cup of tea though. I’d be surprised if the quarterbacking in Atlanta was anything but slightly below average.
The Falcons have two pretty good linemen in Jake Matthews and Chris Lindstrom. Kaleb McGary can run block but not pass block. Drew Dalman was smallish center prospect a year ago but could be an upgrade on Matt Hennessey there. Elijah Wilkinson is the left guard for some reason. It’s an average offensive line, but it might play up if Atlanta goes run first by necessity.
The team has two and a half decent receiving threats. Drake London is a rookie that I don’t think does a very good job against man coverage but gets open against zone and has some juice after the catch. He’s also nice on contested catches. Kyle Pitts seems like he’s probably already a top 3-4 receiving option in the NFL at TE. Weird pick at 4 when QB was a problem, but he’s a good player. Cordarrelle Patterson was finally used correctly for the first time in his career, just in time for him to turn 31. The rest of the offense is filled out with a bunch of guys. This offense was 28th in offense last year, and with Ryan and Ridley out, that seems about right this year, give or take. They need a QB to raise their ceiling.
The defense was 30th last year, and they grabbed a bunch of lower tier corners, along with Casey Hayward. Hayward is still pretty good, and he’s managed to avoid the expected significant drop off so far. I don’t imagine he’ll be able to do that much longer, but as a body to throw out there in press man, he gets the job done. Opposite him, A.J. Terrell is a legit elite corner. The corner depth is pretty rough, and the safeties are below average, but Richie Grant could take a step forward in year 2. The linebackers are remade, but they forgot to add good players. Rashaan Evans was terrible in Tennessee but he’s an interesting flier. Mykal Walker has been okay in limited time. Hopefully Troy Anderson can find the field as a rookie; he was a really intriguing rookie. The starting EDGEs look like garbage, but they made another good second round pick in Arnold Ebiketie. I’m not sure what he can provide as a rookie, but my guess is more than Adetokunbo Ogundeji. Same probably goes for DeAngelo Malone, their third-round pick. On the DI, Grady Jarrett is still there in slightly reduced form, and everyone else is trash. Pretty bad defense aside from Terrell to be honest. 30th still feels about right.
Arthur Smith was about average in the couple stats I look at; EPA provided on non-obvious fourth down decisions. He did an okay job adapting to his personnel in Atlanta, but in year two obviously is looking to get back to the run and PA game he ran in Tennessee. I’m not confident that’s the answer. Dean Pees should probably retire again. I don’t know what to tell ya, there are some interesting pieces after a pretty good draft, but the Falcons kind of suck.
Carolina Panthers
So, Matt Rhule was on the verge of being fired if he didn’t bring in a superstar OC, and David Tepper vowed to find a star QB. So naturally, they have Ben McAdoo calling plays for Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield stunk last year, and he stunk in the preseason, but I’m willing to throw that out to an extent, he probably should not have been playing with his shoulder injury and he joined the Panthers late in the offseason. When he was healthy in 2020, he was legitimately very good. There was no real split between PA and non-PA, and he was very good throwing deep and intermediate. He is now about 9 months removed from surgery to repair his non-throwing labrum. If he is fully recovered, I’m more than open to the idea that he can elevate his supporting cast. The hesitation is just the new system run by a bad OC. Leaning on one of the best backs in the NFL could be a pretty good idea, but he’s always hurt. He’s *already* hurt again (seems minor, but the little tweaks aren’t great). The receiver group is fine; D.J. Moore is a legitimate stud, and perhaps Bob Anderson can be rejuvenated by a QB not named Sam Darnold. Terrance Marshall seems like a bust, but Laviska Shenault was a decent change of scenery shot, and Shi Smith had some good reviews in camp.
It’s an extremely low bar, but the offensive line looks better. Austin Corbett was a nice signing, and Bradley Bozeman is a competent center once he comes back from a high ankle sprain. They spent their first-round pick on Ickey Ekwonu; his camp reviews weren’t glowing, and his preseason was just okay. That could be a problem, but last year’s left tackle play is a very low bar to clear. I’m optimistic about Brady Christensen as a pass blocker at LG. This group was 31st in DVOA, competent QB play will elevate that, and 2020 Mayfield would elevate it quite a bit.
The defense was 15th and returns a bunch of young talent. Derrick Brown was strange top 10 pick, but he is a perfectly fine player. Brian Burns is a stud pass rusher. Shaq Thompson is an excellent LB. Jaycee Horn looks healthy and has lockdown talent. Jeremy Chinn has been great. There were some reasonable upgrades around the fringes that I won’t bother getting into, but this is a young talented group. If C.J. Henderson can come close to living up to his draft position with Stephon Gilmore departed, they have a real chance to improve.
I’m a little surprised that Matt Rhule has found himself so close to the chopping block, but it’s entirely possible he’s lost the locker room. I was optimistic that he could transition to the NFL, but a part of that was hiring Joe Brady; he fired him in a panic move and has now downgraded to Ben McAdoo. Phil Snow has done a pretty good job with the defense; no qualms there. The schedule is about neutral. I’d like to go out on a real limb because I believe in healthy Baker Mayfield, but the vibes are just not great here under Rhule. I’ll have to mull it over! Someone is gonna surprise, and there’s a little intrigue here.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees left last year, and Sean Payton left this year. The Saints tried to get that sex criminal guy, but instead stuck with the other sex criminal guy at QB. They decided this was the year to go all in, possibly because they went restructure crazy trying to land Watson, and once they did that, they decided, welp, might as well.
Jameis Winston has his fans. I am not one of them. He had 2 really good (low volume) games out of 7 before going down in week 8. There may be another day that I feel like getting deeper into this, but the short of it is, he’s inaccurate all over the field and he holds the ball forever. He’ll flash some brilliance and use his feet to make plays outside of structure, but he’s not very good in structure. Look, someone else can like Jameis Winston. Maybe I’m wrong. I’m not spending any more time on this.
Alvin Kamara is still a nice dual threat weapon at RB. The receivers, which were a problem last year, now consist of rookie Chris Olave, a real threat at every level of the field that should be productive right away, Michael Thomas, who has barely produced after two years of injuries, should be reliable when he’s on the field, and Jarvis Landry a short area slot god that has declined a bit with age. Olave has a lot of work to do as a field stretcher because this is not otherwise a group, I love with Winston’s preferred method of attacking the field. The offensive line lost Terron Armstead, and their other first round pick Trevor Penning was unable to beat out James Hurst for the job. That’s probably fine, as far as the current state of the OL goes; Hurst was no Armstead, but pretty solid in relief last season. Ryan Ramczyk is one of the best RT in the business opposite him. The interior is a little problematic; Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz have been below average for the past couple of seasons. Erik McCoy is fine at center. This was a below average offense last season that had to resort to Trevor Siemian and Ian Book at times, but I’m still not crazy about it.
The defense was third in DVOA and was second in 2020. It’s a solid group. They go 3 deep at outside corner and (reached) on a fourth in the second round. They’re stocked well there. The LB group was great last season, though I think I’ll need to see it again from Pete Werner. The starting DL is a strength, particularly Cam Jordan. Safety might be a problem; Tyrann Mathieu is declining but he’s probably a 1 to 1 replacement for Malcolm Jenkins. Marcus Maye has upside, but he’s a downgrade on Marcus Williams. Most likely, this group will regress, but it’s still very talented.
Dennis Allen was a bad head coach in Oakland. It’s unclear what Pete Carmichael is without Sean Payton. If this were a great roster, I might consider this a Barry Switzer situation, but a *pretty good* roster and a downgraded coaching staff? Schedule isn’t very difficult but, I don’t know. Everyone else can pick them. I’m not super confident in this, but I am fading them because I don’t believe in Jameis and Allen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fucking FINALLY. If this goes to another MS word page, I’m gonna lose my mind.
Arians out and Bowles in isn’t great, but unlike with the Payton loss, I have full faith that Byron Leftwich can handle the offense. He probably already was. Also, Tom Brady is basically the coach. Brady should have won MVP last year. The TD/INT wasn’t as gaudy, but the grade was better, and the volume was much, much higher. The weapons are the same besides Gronk being replaced by Kyle Rudolph, which is a downgrade, and Russel Gage upgrading the third receiver spot. Julio Jones is also here; we’ll see whether I care about that. Shaq Mason >= Alex Cappa. A second-year center in Rob Hainsey replacing Ryan Jensen and a second-round rookie replacing all-pro Ali Marpet seems like a problem. The tackles are very good, but Brady almost retired, he’s not trying to deal with DTs in his face all game. This was the top offense by DVOA; that will probably drop a bit, and that’s not factoring in the remote possibility Tom Brady, at some point, stops being Tom Brady.
Defense lost Jason Pierre-Paul, Donkey Kong Suh, and Jordan Whitehead. The replacements are Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who wasn’t great as rookie but has a first round-pedigree. Mike Edwards is playable at SS, though, and Keanu Neal could be an option as well if they want to better replicate Whitehead’s style. Akiem Hicks is better than Suh. The defense was 9th, and it’s still fine. Moving on.
Todd Bowles failed with the Jets, but everyone fails with the Jets. He deserved another shot. Leftwich should be a head coach somewhere. The coaching staff is downgraded, just because Arians was a good head coach, and Bowles focusing on defense is probably better than Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers.
FIN
Mostly NFL Draft Stuff But With a Detached Irony and Probably Other Stuff Too 