A Buncha Rankings

Before I ultimately make my picks, I want to make sure I’m not missing anything so I’m going to rank some stuff.

First, QBs. This is mostly just predictive, but I’ve tried to bake in their 10th and 90th percentile outcomes as well. It basically ended up looking the same anyway. No, I do not think Justin Fields is the 15th best QB, but I am looking at where I think they’ll be at the end of the season.

1 Josh Allen
2 Pat Mahomes
3 Justin Herbert
4 Tom Brady
5 Aaron Rodgers
6 Joe Burrow
7 Lamar Jackson
8 Kyler Murray
9 Russell Wilson
10 Dak Prescott
11 Derek Carr
12 Kirk Cousins
13 Matthew Stafford
14 Trevor Lawrence
15 Justin Fields
16 Matt Ryan
17 Carson Wentz
18 Baker Mayfield
19 Ryan Tannehill
20 Jalen Hurts
21 Tua Tagovailoa
22 Daniel Jones
23 Trey Lance
24 Mac Jones
25 Jameis Winston
26 Davis Mills
27 Marcus Mariota
28 Mitchell Trubisky
29 Jacoby Brissett
30 Jared Goff
31 Geno Smith
32 Zach Wilson

Next, coaches. Basically tried to ask myself, if all the coaches were FA, independent of my personnel, who would I want to hire to try to make the playoffs as many times as possible over the next 5 years.

1 Sean McDermott
2 Sean McVay
3 Brandon Staley
4 Bill Belichick
5 John Harbaugh
6 Andy Reid
7 Matt LaFleur
8 Mike Tomlin
9 Kyle Shanahan
10 Frank Reich
11 Mike Vrabel
12 Matt Eberflus
13 Brian Daboll
14 Dan Campbell
15 Doug Pederson
16 Pete Carroll
17 Kevin Stefanski
18 Mike McDaniel
19 Ron Rivera
20 Zac Taylor
21 Todd Bowles
22 Kevin O’Connell
23 Lovie Smith
24 Robert Saleh
25 Nick Sirianni
26 Arthur Smith
27 Josh McDaniels
28 Matt Rhule
29 Nathaniel Hackett
30 Kliff Kingsbury
31 Dennis Allen
32 Mike McCarthy

Next, predicting offensive DVOA. DVOA already takes into account strength of schedule, so I am ranking this independently of schedule difficulty. They also weigh rush offense a little more heavily than they probably should, so I’m trying to bake that in. Last Year’s Rank to the right.

1	Los Angeles Chargers	4
2	Buffalo Bills	10
3	Cincinnati Bengals	18
4	Denver Broncos	12
5	Baltimore Ravens	17
6	Minnesota Vikings	16
7	Miami Dolphins	24
8	Kansas City Chiefs	3
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1
10	Green Bay Packers	2
11	Los Angeles Rams	8
12	Dallas Cowboys	6
13	Arizona Cardinals	15
14	Cleveland Browns	14
15	Washington Commanders	21
16	San Francisco 49ers	5
17	Las Vegas Raiders	19
18	Indianapolis Colts	13
19	Philadelphia Eagles	11
20	Carolina Panthers	31
21	New York Giants	32
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	27
23	New Orleans Saints	23
24	Chicago Bears	26
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	25
26	Atlanta Falcons	28
27	Tennessee Titans	20
28	New England Patriots	9
29	Detroit Lions	29
30	Seattle Seahawks	7
31	New York Jets	22
32	Houston Texans	30

Next, Defensive DVOA. Same Deal as above except I can’t get it to paste as a damn table. Way more volatile; extremely turnover dependent, so I’m more or less trying to rank personnel.

1 Buffalo Bills 1
2 Green Bay Packers 22
3 San Francisco 49ers 7
4 Cleveland Browns 11
5 Miami Dolphins 10
6 Los Angeles Rams 5
7 New Orleans Saints 3
8 Cincinnati Bengals 19
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
10 Baltimore Ravens 28
11 New England Patriots 4
12 Carolina Panthers 15
13 Washington Commanders 27
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 14
15 Los Angeles Chargers 26
16 Denver Broncos 20
17 Philadelphia Eagles 25
18 Dallas Cowboys 2
19 Chicago Bears 13
20 Indianapolis Colts 8
21 Minnesota Vikings 16
22 Arizona Cardinals 6
23 Houston Texans 23
24 Kansas City Chiefs 24
25 Las Vegas Raiders 17
26 Detroit Lions 29
27 New York Giants 18
28 New York Jets 32
29 Jacksonville Jaguars 31
30 Tennessee Titans 12
31 Atlanta Falcons 30
32 Seattle Seahawks 21